"Identifies the many ways in which unexpected outcomes are endemic to international relations due to the complexity of world politics"--.

• Contents
• Preface
• Part I Theoretical Background
  • 1 Researching Complex Effects of International Relations
    • The Study in Context: Related Research
    • Definitions, Methodology, and Contents
  • 2 Complex Effects of International Relations: Introduction
    • The Principle of Double Effect (PDE)
    • Foreseeable and Unforeseeable Effects
    • Inevitable Negative but Foreseeable Effects
    • The Complexity of Unintended Consequences
      • Rebound Results
      • Derivative Products: Positive, Neutral, or Negative
    • The Complexity of Intended Consequences
      • Circuitous but Intended Outcomes
  • 3 Complex Effects of International Relations: Causality
    • The Complex-Causal Mechanism for Complex Effects in International Relations
      • Basic Assumptions of the Complex International System
        • Nonlinearity, Ideas, and Influence
          • Nonlinearity
          • Ideas and Influence
          • Path Dependence
      • The Mechanism
        • Degree of Ripeness for Change
        • Types of Feedback that the System Ultimately Adopted
      • Outcomes
        • Type of Reality That Will Emerge
    • Complex-Causality of Unintended Consequences
      • Complex-Causality of Rebound Results
        • Rebound Results: The Mechanism
      • Complex-Causality of Derivative Products: Positive, Neutral, or Negative
        • Derivative Product: The Mechanism
    • Complex-Causality of Intended Consequences
      • Complex-Causality of CIrcuitous but Intended Outcomes
        • Circuitous but Intended Outcomes: The Mechanism
    • Conclusions
• Part II The Complexity of Unintended Consequences Rebound Results
  • 4 The June 1967 Six-Day War and Its Rebound Result: The 1973 War
    • Introduction
    • The June 1967 Six-Day War
      • The Path to the June 1967 Six-Day War
      • The June 1967 Six-Day War
    • The June 1967 Six-Day War and Its Rebound Result: The 1973 War
      • Humiliation in International RElations
      • The Arabs’ Humiliation: June 1967 Six-Day War, the War of Attrition, and the Failed Diplomatic Activity of the 1970S
      • The October 1973 Yom Kippur War as a Means to Restore “Arab Pride” and Rebuild Arabs’ and Egyptians’ Self-Respect
    • Conclusions
  • 5 Israel’s Nuclear Amimut Policy: Prevented the Dire Rebound Results of Arms Race
    • Introduction
    • Israel’s “Path to the Bomb”
    • Israel’s Amimut Policy of Nuclear Ambiguity
    • Israel’s Nuclear Amimut Policy and its Consequences
      • The Consequences of Maintaining Amimut
        • Maintaining Amimut and its Positive Consequences
        • Maintaining Amimut and its Negative Consequences
      • The Consequences of Abandoning Amimut
        • Abandoning Amimut and Its Positive Consequences
        • Abandoning Amimut and Its Negative Consequences
    • Conclusions
• Part III The Complexity of Unintended Consequences Derivative Products
  • 6 The October 1973 Yom Kippur War: Link to Israeli-Egyptian Peace Agreement
    • Introduction
    • The Israeli Intelligence Failure
    • The Involvement of the Superpowers
    • The 1973 War and Its Derivative Product
      • Effects of the 1973 War on Israel
      • Effects of the 1973 War on Egypt and the Arabs
    • The Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty as a Derivative Product with Positive Side Effect of the October 1973 Yom Kippur War
    • Conclusions
  • 7 Abadan/AJAX-Suez Hidden Linkage
    • Introduction
    • Abadan/AJAX-Suez Hidden Linkage
    • Conclusions
• Part IV The Complexity of Intended Consequences
  • 8 Circuitous Relationships between Military Results and Political Outcomes: The October 1973 Yom Kippur War
    • Introduction
    • Egypt’s Path to Reclaim the Sinai Peninsula
      • The Israeli-Egyptian War of Attrition of 1969–70
      • The Pre-1973 War Peace Initiatives
        • The UN Mission of Gunner Jarring (1968–71)
        • The Secretary of State William Rogers’s Plan (1969–70)
        • President Sadat’s Initiative of Early 1971
        • Sadat’s Secret Peace Initiative of February 1973
      • The October 1973 Yom Kippur War
        • The Superpowers’ Involvement in the October 1973 War
    • The Post–October 1973 Yom Kippur War Period
    • Conclusions
  • 9 The Circuitous Nature of Operation AJAX
    • Introduction
    • The Path to Nationalization
    • The Circuitous Nature of Operation Ajax
    • British Incentives for Launching the Coup
    • Britain’s Repeated Attempts to Overthrow Mossadegh
    • Washington’s Objections to Intervention
    • London Circuitously Gets Washington to Act
    • Conclusions
• Conclusion: Complex Effects of International Relations in Practice
  • Complex Effects of International Relations: General Implications
  • The Six Case Studies under Consideration: Conclusions
  • Complex Effects of International Relations: Middle East Implications for the Years to Come
• Notes
• Bibliography
• Index