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Israeli, Ofer. Complex effects of international relations: intended and unintended consequences of human actions in the Middle East / Ofer Israeli. — 1 online resource. — (SUNY series, James N. Rosenau series in global politics). — <URL:http://elib.fa.ru/ebsco/2499859.pdf>.Дата создания записи: 02.02.2020 Тематика: International relations — Case studies. — Decision making; Middle East — Foreign relations; World politics; Nuclear weapons — Government policy; Israel-Arab War, 1967.; Israel-Arab War, 1973. Коллекции: EBSCO Разрешенные действия: –
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Аннотация
"Identifies the many ways in which unexpected outcomes are endemic to international relations due to the complexity of world politics"--.
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Оглавление
- Contents
- Preface
- Part I Theoretical Background
- 1 Researching Complex Effects of International Relations
- The Study in Context: Related Research
- Definitions, Methodology, and Contents
- 2 Complex Effects of International Relations: Introduction
- The Principle of Double Effect (PDE)
- Foreseeable and Unforeseeable Effects
- Inevitable Negative but Foreseeable Effects
- The Complexity of Unintended Consequences
- Rebound Results
- Derivative Products: Positive, Neutral, or Negative
- The Complexity of Intended Consequences
- Circuitous but Intended Outcomes
- 3 Complex Effects of International Relations: Causality
- The Complex-Causal Mechanism for Complex Effects in International Relations
- Basic Assumptions of the Complex International System
- Nonlinearity, Ideas, and Influence
- Nonlinearity
- Ideas and Influence
- Path Dependence
- Nonlinearity, Ideas, and Influence
- The Mechanism
- Degree of Ripeness for Change
- Types of Feedback that the System Ultimately Adopted
- Outcomes
- Type of Reality That Will Emerge
- Basic Assumptions of the Complex International System
- Complex-Causality of Unintended Consequences
- Complex-Causality of Rebound Results
- Rebound Results: The Mechanism
- Complex-Causality of Derivative Products: Positive, Neutral, or Negative
- Derivative Product: The Mechanism
- Complex-Causality of Rebound Results
- Complex-Causality of Intended Consequences
- Complex-Causality of CIrcuitous but Intended Outcomes
- Circuitous but Intended Outcomes: The Mechanism
- Complex-Causality of CIrcuitous but Intended Outcomes
- Conclusions
- The Complex-Causal Mechanism for Complex Effects in International Relations
- 1 Researching Complex Effects of International Relations
- Part II The Complexity of Unintended Consequences Rebound Results
- 4 The June 1967 Six-Day War and Its Rebound Result: The 1973 War
- Introduction
- The June 1967 Six-Day War
- The Path to the June 1967 Six-Day War
- The June 1967 Six-Day War
- The June 1967 Six-Day War and Its Rebound Result: The 1973 War
- Humiliation in International RElations
- The Arabs’ Humiliation: June 1967 Six-Day War, the War of Attrition, and the Failed Diplomatic Activity of the 1970S
- The October 1973 Yom Kippur War as a Means to Restore “Arab Pride” and Rebuild Arabs’ and Egyptians’ Self-Respect
- Conclusions
- 5 Israel’s Nuclear Amimut Policy: Prevented the Dire Rebound Results of Arms Race
- Introduction
- Israel’s “Path to the Bomb”
- Israel’s Amimut Policy of Nuclear Ambiguity
- Israel’s Nuclear Amimut Policy and its Consequences
- The Consequences of Maintaining Amimut
- Maintaining Amimut and its Positive Consequences
- Maintaining Amimut and its Negative Consequences
- The Consequences of Abandoning Amimut
- Abandoning Amimut and Its Positive Consequences
- Abandoning Amimut and Its Negative Consequences
- The Consequences of Maintaining Amimut
- Conclusions
- 4 The June 1967 Six-Day War and Its Rebound Result: The 1973 War
- Part III The Complexity of Unintended Consequences Derivative Products
- 6 The October 1973 Yom Kippur War: Link to Israeli-Egyptian Peace Agreement
- Introduction
- The Israeli Intelligence Failure
- The Involvement of the Superpowers
- The 1973 War and Its Derivative Product
- Effects of the 1973 War on Israel
- Effects of the 1973 War on Egypt and the Arabs
- The Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty as a Derivative Product with Positive Side Effect of the October 1973 Yom Kippur War
- Conclusions
- 7 Abadan/AJAX-Suez Hidden Linkage
- Introduction
- Abadan/AJAX-Suez Hidden Linkage
- Conclusions
- 6 The October 1973 Yom Kippur War: Link to Israeli-Egyptian Peace Agreement
- Part IV The Complexity of Intended Consequences
- 8 Circuitous Relationships between Military Results and Political Outcomes: The October 1973 Yom Kippur War
- Introduction
- Egypt’s Path to Reclaim the Sinai Peninsula
- The Israeli-Egyptian War of Attrition of 1969–70
- The Pre-1973 War Peace Initiatives
- The UN Mission of Gunner Jarring (1968–71)
- The Secretary of State William Rogers’s Plan (1969–70)
- President Sadat’s Initiative of Early 1971
- Sadat’s Secret Peace Initiative of February 1973
- The October 1973 Yom Kippur War
- The Superpowers’ Involvement in the October 1973 War
- The Post–October 1973 Yom Kippur War Period
- Conclusions
- 9 The Circuitous Nature of Operation AJAX
- Introduction
- The Path to Nationalization
- The Circuitous Nature of Operation Ajax
- British Incentives for Launching the Coup
- Britain’s Repeated Attempts to Overthrow Mossadegh
- Washington’s Objections to Intervention
- London Circuitously Gets Washington to Act
- Conclusions
- 8 Circuitous Relationships between Military Results and Political Outcomes: The October 1973 Yom Kippur War
- Conclusion: Complex Effects of International Relations in Practice
- Complex Effects of International Relations: General Implications
- The Six Case Studies under Consideration: Conclusions
- Complex Effects of International Relations: Middle East Implications for the Years to Come
- Notes
- Bibliography
- Index
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